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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.